For more than two years, farmers have fought a battle with a fatal strain of bird flu that continues to disrupt the U.S. egg supply. At one point, the shortage sent the price of a dozen regular eggs soaring to almost $5. Prices retreated somewhat, but they remain volatile.
The current spike coincides with shifts in shopping habits. Demand tends to rise in the fall and winter, says Brian Earnest, an animal protein economist with CoBank. Seasonal baking calls for increased egg use in home kitchens. And students of all ages go back to eating meals in cafeterias and dining halls, where eggs might feature prominently.
Meanwhile, flocks of egg-laying hens are smaller because producers haven’t recovered from losses to bird flu over the past two years, Earnest says. “It seems like they can’t get over this bird flu outbreak issue.”
Egg prices rose 30% in one year
The average cost of a dozen Grade A large eggs was $3.37 in October, down from $3.82 in September, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ FRED site.
But the latest consumer price index, or CPI, shows that the price of eggs is up 30.4% from where it was a year ago. That’s in contrast to the trajectory of food prices overall, which rose just 2.1% in the past year.
» MORE: Will prices ever go down?
BLS data tracking egg prices goes back to at least 1980, when large, Grade A eggs cost $0.88 a dozen, not adjusted for inflation. Before February 2022, the average cost of a dozen had largely stayed below $2 since March 2016. Then, the price of eggs more than doubled from the beginning of 2022 until hitting its peak of $4.82 per dozen in January 2023.
Why are eggs so expensive?
The pandemic and inflation play a role in rising egg prices, but the real culprit is an outbreak of H5N1, a highly transmissible and fatal strain of avian influenza, or bird flu. The outbreak started in early 2022 and quickly grew into the largest bird flu outbreak in U.S. history. As of Nov. 8, the virus has affected nearly 105.2 million birds in the U.S. since January 2022, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
With so many birds lost to the virus, egg production isn’t keeping up with consumer demand. That egg shortage has pushed up prices, which will remain volatile until producers rebuild their flocks and increase egg production.
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New bird flu cases continue to be reported by major U.S. egg producers. Most recently, outbreaks affecting more than 2.84 million egg layers were reported in October at commercial facilities in Oregon, Washington and Utah, according to the CDC.
Cage-free egg shortage means volatile egg prices in California
A dozen large, white cage-free eggs cost about $5.26 per dozen in California, according to USDA market data for the week of Nov. 8, up from $2.81 a month earlier.
Egg prices shot up in California at the start of 2024 because a string of bird flu cases in December and January were concentrated in the state. Like the egg market at large, recovering from those losses has been slow. But the unique circumstances of that state have made it even slower.
In 2018, California voters passed a ballot measure setting high standards for farm animal welfare. That included requiring that only cage-free eggs be sold in the state. The share of egg layers raised in cage-free conditions has been growing, but they still make up less than half of the national population. And many of them are raised in California. USDA data show the national inventory of cage-free eggs took a big hit when California egg producers reported cases of bird flu.
Because of the diminished supply of cage-free eggs, prices went up. Weekly price data from the USDA shows California egg prices (meaning, cage-free egg prices) peaked at $5.59 per dozen during the week of Feb. 9.
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